Case study: Wargaming

Client and assignment

A large German car supplier engaged the FMG to arrange a "war gaming" (dynamic competitive scenarios) for the business units of its by far biggest division.

for protection against strategic surprises.

Goal

• The Goals of the project were the identification of possible competitive situations in the future and the early perception of possible surprises caused be competitive action in the future and potential "blind spots" in the management’s attention.
• Following this, opportunities and acting options against the background of possible competitive situations in the future were to been shown.
• Finally these opportunities and acting options were to be prioritized as parts of the company’s strategy.

Project content and process

1. After detailed analytical and methodical preparation a two day workshop with the 60 top managers was held. The dynamic competitive scenarios were developed and analyzed in nine simultaneous workshops each supported by an experienced moderator and a documentator.
2. Technologic, economic and social future factors as well as the most important specific market trends formed the basis of this task.
3. Aggressive competitor strategies and, following that, the client’s counter-strategies were developed in three turns.
4. The participants analyzed the potential impacts systematically in each turn.
5. The workshops analysed possible actions of the real main competitors, the activities of potential future competitors in related industries as well as virtual (archetypical) competitors following extreme strategic concepts. Thus the analysis covered the direct market environment as well as possible surprises by the entrance of new competitors.

Results

The wide approach of the war gaming, the deliberate thinking in improbabilities, the methodologically supported the reduction of blinds spots, and the evaluation of the potential impacts of different competitive scenarios effectively secured the strategy and competitive position of our client. It led to a number of so far unidentified strategic opportunities.

Client feedback

Our client considers the used war gaming approach as suitable for the dynamic competitive analysis and plans the roll-out in further business units in the company. The identified opportunities are step by step implemented into the company’s strategy. Quotes: "It was really worthwhile." and "We identified many issues, we didn’t have on our screen before."