Five views of the future

The Eltviller model realizes the five possible perspectives on the future. The future can be looked at in the entrepreneurial context with five "glasses":

1. "Blue view ": The probable future (assumptions)
2. "Green view ": The possible future (opportunities)
3. "Yellow viewn": The desired future (vision)
4. "Red view ": The unexpected future (discontinuities)
5. "Violet view ": The created future (strategies)

The wish to imagine things creatively and to remain practical at the same time is not feasible. It’s a dilemma: We can not think highly creatively and analytically or highly critically and visionary simultaneously. We can only do so one after the other. Therefore the five viewpoints have to be applied in the right order. This results in a sequence of perspectives and a process, which has proved successful in hundreds of projects in companies and organizations of various kinds. This process is complemented by an opening phase called "FutureRadar" in which relevant future information is being gathered and eventually by the implementation of a FutureManagement-System through which the process is institutionalized.

The viewpoints of the future in the Eltville Model of future management

1. The blue glasses: What is the probable future?

With experience and logical reasoning experts can succeed in correctly assessing the probable future of a market over the coming years. People build their life, and companies their existence, upon the foundation of such future assumptions. Someone who invests into a chemical plant often commits himself over a period of a quarter of a century and therefore often makes his economic existence dependent on the correctness of his future assumptions concerning his customer's needs, the market and technology in the future. The development of a new product or the employment of a new worker is also predicated on our future assumptions. It is astonishing, however, that only a few companies have explicitly formulated their future assumptions as the foundation of their decisions. Methodically, the blue perspective is applied in the step of "AssumptionAnalysis".

2. The green glasses: What is the possible and creatable future?

The green perspective focuses on the possibilities we have for shaping the future. Which hand do we hold for the game of the future? Which cards can we get hold of? What can we shape? What is feasible? The green glasses are creative, investigative and borderless. They are very different from the analytical, logical view related to the blue glasses. The green view does not know any limits of thought. While experience was crucial for successfully applying the blue perspective it is hampering success of the green view: The more experience the worse the results. Methodically, the green perspective is applied in the step of "OpportunityAnalysis".

3. The yellow glasses: How do we want our future to look like?

Through the yellow glasses we see the chances and opportunities critically and visionary at the same time. The task is to determine those future opportunities which are best suited for you, for your company, your potentials, abilities, resources, finances and culture. The best opportunities become an integral part of a strategic vision as a concrete image of a fascinating, commonly strived and practicable future. Methodically, the yellow perspective is applied in the step of "VisionDevelopment".

4. The red glasses: How could the future surprise us?

11 September 2001, 9 November 1989 (fall of the Berlin wall) and 26 April 1986 (Tschernobyl) have been surprising events. The flop of the "new economy" for the time being, the persistent non-occurrence of the video-tv boom and the rapid dissemination of the internet in the mid-nineties were surprising, but gradual, developments. Through the red glasses we are searching for such discontinuities and try to improve our future strategy through prevention, insurance and provision. The red perspective is applied in the step of "DiscontinuityAnalysis".

5. The violet glasses: How do we create our future?

Most entrepreneurs and businessmen are very familiar with the violet glasses. Concrete action for the future is defined here. This perspective causes the least problems of understanding and implementation, because it is deeply rooted in daily thinking and acting. But the violet glasses have to be the last step, the other four glasses need to be applied first. The violet perspective is applied in "StrategyDevelopment".