The method of the "Eltville Model"
The "Eltville Model" contains selected fundamental methods of future research, such as delphi, scenario methods, weak signals, issue analysis, precursors, analytical and holistic decision-making procedures, a series of uni- and multivariant forecasting techniques as well as a broad range of creativity methods. The methodical system is supported by the software "FutureManager", developed by the FutureMangementGroup AG.
Future projects in companies, non-profit organizations and administrations conducted by FutureManagementGroup AG are based on a quality-approved phase model:
 1. Basics: In a practical future project the first step consists in acquiring the basic knowledge of future management and to make this competence available to a team of internal future managers.
 2. FutureRadar: On the basis of a thorough system analysis essential future factors (trends, technologies) are determined. This is accomplished through a future scan (expert surveys and research). Each member of the future teams gets the function of a sensor and thus is requested to gather information on a particular area related to the market, to structure this information and to share it with the future team.
 3. AssumptionAnalysis: Future projections which have been established by the FutureRadar are now processed and jugded by the future team and external experts according to criteria such as probability, importance and time horizon. The results are integrated into one FuturePanorama and statistically edited. Distinctions are made between FutureAssumptions as expected developments, FutureEventualities as relatively probable developments and FutureDiscontinuities as improbable developments.
 4. OpportunityAnalysis: The OpportunityAnalysis is the core phase of the process. Its function is to expand the future related horizon of the decision-makers and to derive opportunities for new markets, products, strategies, structures, etc., from the FuturePanorama. A broad range of creative methods are applied so that eventually an OpportunityPanorama is established.
 5. StrategyDevelopment: The FuturePanorama and the OpportunityPanorama are used as the basis of a draft FutureStrategy, understood as strategic future vision and strategic guidelines. This could possibly result in a modification of the company's vision.
 6. SurpriseAnalysis: Through an iterative procedure the soundness and plausibility of the FutureStrategy is ensured by confronting it with major sudden and/or unexpected occurrences and developments.
7. Realization planning: The FutureStrategy leads into a system of concrete projects and actions.
8. FutureManagement-System: In order to ensure continuity of the future related work a comprehensive and individual FutureManagement-System is eventually developed and implemented.
9. Realization coaching: In order to keep the future knowledge up to date and to support the realization of the approved actions, radar workshops are carried out on a regular basis.
By going through these methodical phases the essential elements of a FutureManagement-System are practically developed and already implemented. Eventually the future radar is completed by a future database.
With regard to content FutureManagementGroup AG maintains a comprehensive future database which contains about 100 so-called future factors. The database is being feeded from the most important future-related intelligence sources, own researches, expert questionings and worldwide contacts to futurologists.
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